School Admissions, Mismatch, and Graduation, with Maria Elena Ortega-Hesles, 2023
This paper studies the effects of changing the priority ordering for admission to high school in the centralized education system in Mexico City. Elite schools are oversubscribed and seat rationing follows a priority ordering that relies solely on an admission exam score. The admission process ignores other available skill measures, such as middle school grade point average (GPA), which may better capture skills important for later education and life-cycle outcomes. We first show that marginal admission to an elite high school decreases on-time graduation for students with low middle school GPAs and does not affect it for students with high middle school GPAs. We then study the effects of counterfactual admission policies wherein the priority ordering increasingly weighs middle school GPA. The larger the weight on GPA, the larger the share of females and low-income students admitted to elite schools. However, the elite school on-time graduation is concave with respect to the weight on GPA. The optimal admission policy would put a weight of 60% on GPA and a 40% weight on the admission exam score.
Perceived Ability and School Choices: Experimental Evidence and Scale-up Effects, with Matteo Bobba and Veronica Frisancho, 2023
This paper studies an information intervention designed and implemented in the context of a school assignment mechanism in Mexico City. We find that providing students from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds with feedback about their academic performance contributes to placing applicants in schools that better fit their skills, allowing them to graduate on time from high school at a higher rate. We also quantify the effect of a counterfactual and yet feasible implementation of the information intervention at a much larger scale. Simulation results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the demandside responses, which trigger sorting and displacement patterns within the assignment mechanism. The equilibrium effects of the intervention may possibly hinder the subsequent academic trajectories of high-achieving and socio-economically disadvantaged students.
Time Varying Effects of Elite Schools: Evidence from Mexico City, with Salvador Navarro, 2023
We study whether the academic effects of being marginally admitted to an elite science school depend on the year of admission. For this, we take advantage of five years (2005-2009) of administrative data on the centralized high school admission system in Mexico City. We find that the effect on mathematics test scores at the end of high school decreases each year, starting positive and statistically significant in 2005 and ending close to zero and not significant by 2009. We propose two mechanisms to explain this trend. The first is related to changes over time in the composition of marginally admitted and rejected students combined with heterogeneity in the effect of marginal admission. The second considers changes over time in the production functions of elite and non-elite schools. Together, these results highlight the limited external validity of estimates obtained at a single point in time as they may be systematically influenced by time-varying changes in the educational context.